War With Iran

War With Iran: Political, Military and Economic Consequences provides readers both a history of Iran’s relationship with the West and an expert’s estimation of what the political, human and financial costs of full-scale war with Iran might be.

John Allen Gay is assistant editor of The National Interest magazine. Geoffrey Kemp is the Director of Regional Strategic Programs at the Center for the National Interest. He has had a long career in academic and research communities, and was Special Assistant to President Reagan and Senior Director for the Near East and South Asia on the National Security Council staff..

Acknowledgements Prologue Introduction Iran's Nuclear Program Chapter 1: Positions of Primary Actors Iran Key Opponents to Iran's Nuclear Program The United States Direct Relations Israel Global Opponents Chapter 2: Choosing to Attack Context for a Strike Surprise Attack War Escalates Response to Nuclear Provocation Merits and Risks of a Strike Expert Voices Political Voices Chapter 3: How an Attack Might Work Targeting An Israeli Strike The Central Route: Overflying Iraq Logistics of an Israeli Strike An American Strike Bunker Busting Iranian Air Defenses Follow-On Strikes Impact on Iran's Nuclear Program Alternative Means of Destruction Sabotage Commando Raid Chapter 4: Iran's Retaliation Lebanese Hezbollah Israeli Natural Gas Sites Iraq and Afghanistan General Terrorism The Strait of Hormuz Insurgency in the Gulf The Missile Threat Other Iranian Threats to Oil Chapter 5: Evolving Crisis, Challenging Exit Mass Retaliation Nonretaliation Middle Paths American Response and Cyclical Violence Chapter 6: Regional Oil Gulf Oil: Iran's Role Oil Prices and Iran's Economy Chapter 7: Oil and War Recent History Impact of a Military Strike on Iran Impact of an Attack on Iranian Oil Facilities Iran's Options Against Regional Oil Action in the Strait of Hormuz Attacking Arab Oil Facilities Mobilizing the Saudi Shia Population Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction Iraq and Azerbaijan Chapter 8: Preparing for Oil Disruptions Mitigation Rerouting Oil Flows Excess Capacity Assurance Preparation Expanding Reserves Pipeline Preparation Removal of Bottlenecks Preparing to Reduce Demand Readying the Refinery Network "Pre-Assuring" Investors Chapter 9: Economic Consequences Wider Economic Factors Growth Patterns and Oil Markets Oil Price Increases and Supply Interruption Oil Price Increases and Economic Recovery Threats to the Dollar Alternatives to the Dollar? However Impacts in the Middle East Regional Conflicts American Trade The Impact of the Sanctions Conclusions Chapter 10: Conclusions: The Challenge of Getting Out, the Costs of Staying Home Exit Strategy for War with Iran Internal Political Impacts The Cost of Inaction Conclusions Appendices Bibliography