The Coming Bond Market Collapse

THE COMING BOND MARKET COLLAPSE A book that is certain to spark controversy within the financial media and throughout the halls of government, The Coming Bond Market Collapse sounds a clarion call to investors, business leaders, and policymakers. Author Michael Pento, a noted adherent of the Austrian school of economics theories, compellingly argues that the United States is fast approaching the end stage of the biggest asset bubble in history. He describes how the bursting of that bubble will trigger a massive interest rate shock that will send the U.S. consumer-driven economy and the U.S. government—now pumped up by massive Treasury debt—into bankruptcy, an event that, in turn, will send violent shockwaves throughout the global economy. Backed by a wealth of historical and economic data, Mr. Pento examines how the policies followed by both the Federal Reserve and private industry have led, inexorably, to the impending disaster, and he exposes alarming parallels between the U.S. and European debt crises. But this book isn't all doom and gloom. A top market analyst who accurately foretold the bursting of the housing bubble in most major print and TV media, Michael Pento also provides well-reasoned solutions that government, industry, and individual investors can take to insulate themselves against the coming crisis. Just as importantly, Mr. Pento delivers proven strategies and tools investors can use to successfully navigate the rocky times ahead and to not only survive the crisis, but capitalize on it. The Coming Bond Market Collapse gives you the information you need to make sense of and prepare for the looming economic debacle. It provides you with tested strategies for insulating yourself against the most violent shocks that follow. And it arms you with tools for thriving financially, even in the midst of what could be a disaster worse than the Great Depression.

MICHAEL G. PENTO is the President and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS). PPS is a Registered Investment Advisory Firm that provides money management services and research for individual and institutional clients. Michael is a well-established specialist in markets and economics and a regular guest on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, Fox Business Network, and other international media outlets. His market analysis can also be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. He also acts as a financial columnist for Forbes, contributor to TheStreet.com, and a blogger at the Huffington Post. Prior to starting PPS, Michael served as a senior economist and vice president of the managed products division of Euro Pacific Capital. Additionally, Michael has worked at an investment advisory firm where he helped create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street. Earlier in his career, he spent two years on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. He has carried Series 7, 63, 65, 55, and Life and Health Insurance Licenses. Michael graduated from Rowan University in 1991.

Introduction xi Acknowledgments xv Chapter 1: As Good as Gold? 1 The Great American Money Machine 4 "Dad, Where Does Money Come From?" 8 The Implications of a Fiat Currency 11 Notes 14 Chapter 2: The Anatomy of a Bubble 15 The Great Depression-A Historical Comparison 19 Two Decades of a Bubble Economy 25 Does CDO Rhyme with Tulip Bulb? 29 Today's Bubble in Bonds Rhymes with the Debt-Fueled Real Estate Crisis 31 Notes 33 Chapter 3: Bernanke's Hair-of-the-Dog Economy 35 Austrian Trade Cycle Theory versus Keynesian Toys and Candy 36 "End This Depression Now!"-The Game Show 41 "I'm Not Addicted to Easy Money . . . and I Can Stop at Anytime" 50 No Way Out-Starring Ben Bernanke . . . 56 The Thirty-Year Party in the Bond Market 62 Notes 65 Chapter 4: Deflation Phobia and Inflation Philos 67 Fed Busters 69 Common Fed-lore Myth 1-The Myth of the Deflationary Death Spiral Monster 69 The Truth about Price Deflation 72 Fed-Lore Myth 2: Japan Proves that Debt and Deflation Go Hand-in-Hand 77 Myth 3: The Keynesian Fed-Lore of the Phillips Curve 86 Myth 4: You Can Rely on Government Statistics 92 Myth 5: The Fed Was Created for Your Benefit 100 Notes 101 Chapter 5: The Bubble Reality Check 103 The Investor Reality Check 104 The Interest Rate Reality Check 110 The Teaser Rate on U.S. Debt-Reality Check 115 Banker Reality Check 119 The China Reality Check 127 Washington's Addiction to Debt-Reality Check 134 Notes 140 Chapter 6: The End of an Empire 141 The End of a Monetary System 145 The Economic Laws of Debt 152 U.S. Debt-This Time It's Different 153 Is Austerity a Bad Thing? 157 Where Will All the Money Go? 160 The Bell Is Ringing for the Bubble in the Bond Market 163 Banana Ben to the Rescue 167 The Cost of an Empire 169 Notes 173 Chapter 7: Real World Europe 175 The Creation of the Euro 176 Greece 183 Dr. Hayek vs. Dr. Keynes 190 Dr. Keynes and Dr. Hayek and America's Bout with Hyperinflation 195 I'll Take Currency Debasement for $40 Billion . . . a Month 200 Final Jeopardy 203 The Canary in the Coal Mine 204 Notes 205 Chapter 8: The Debt Crisis 207 From Pioneer to Penurious . . . 207 The Sixteenth Amendment . . . The Beginning of the Slippery Slope 209 Mexican Debt Crisis 215 The Asian Contagion 218 Russian Debt Crisis 220 The Debt Crisis Fallout 223 What Would It Look Like Here? 225 It Can't Happen Here? 233 I Don't Want to Be Right 238 Conclusion 247 Notes 248 Chapter 9: What Can the Government Do to Mollify the Debt Collapse? 251 The Principles of a Free Market 252 Solution 1: Allow the Deleveraging Process to Happen 257 Solution 2: Strengthen and Stabilize the U.S. Dollar 260 Solution 3: Allow Interest Rates to Rise to the Supply of Savings versus the Demand for Money 262 Solution 4: Balance the Budget 264 Solution 5: Aggressively Reduce the Amount Of Regulatory Burden 270 Solution 6: Simplify the Tax Code 273 Solution 7: Fair Trade and a Free Trade 276 Solution 8: Overhaul Education 277 Conclusion 278 Notes 283 Chapter 10: How to Invest Your Money Before and After the Bond Bubble Bursts 285 What to Own When U.S. Debt and the Dollar Collapse 289 Notes 294 About the Author 295 Index 297