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Google was a black swan, so was 9/11. So what is a black swan? A highly improbable event with 3 principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and after the fact we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random than it was. This powerful book offers a new way to view the world that is universal in its applications, and will appeal to those who enjoyed "Freakonomics" and "Blink".
THE BLACK SWAN is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? As Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently the Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. Taleb lives (mostly) in New York.
"Very engaging and provocative."
Business Week
"Fearless ... in puncturing phony expertise ... read this book."
Philip E. Tetlock, University of California, author of Expert Political Judgment.
"A fascinating study..."
Guardian