The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis

-Thisbook describes argumentative tools and strategies that can be used to guidepolicy decisions under conditions of great uncertainty. Contributing authorsexplore methods from philosophical analysis and in particular argumentationanalysis, showing how it can be used to systematize discussions about policyissues involving great uncertainty. The first part of the work exploreshow to deal in a systematic way with decision-making when there may be pluralperspectives on the decision problem, along with unknown consequences of whatwe do. Readers will see how argumentation tools can be used for prioritizingamong uncertain dangers, for determining how decisions should be framed, forchoosing a suitable time frame for a decision, and for systematically choosingamong different decision options. Case studies are presented in thesecond part of the book, showing argumentation in practice in the areas ofclimate geoengineering, water governance, synthetic biology, nuclear waste, andfinancial markets. In one example, argumentation analysis is applied toproposals to solve the climate problem with various technological manipulationsof the natural climate system, such as massive dispersion of reflectiveaerosols into the stratosphere. Even after a thorough investigation of such aproposal, doubt remains as to whether all the potential risks have beenidentified. In such discussions, conventional risk analysis does not have muchto contribute since it presupposes that the risks have been identified, whereasthe argumentative approach to uncertainty management can be used to systematizediscussions.

Sven Ove Hansson is professor and head of the Department of Philosophy and the History of Technology, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm. He is editor-in-chief of Theoria and of the Springer book series Outstanding contributions to logic. His latest book is The Ethics of Risk (Palgrave). He is a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences and was President of the international Society for Philosophy and Technology in 2011-2013.
Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn is adjunct professor at the Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich. Her current focus is on systematizing research and decisions on sustainable development. She is lead editor of the Handbook of Transdisciplinary Research (Springer). She is a member of the Scientific Board of the interdisciplinary journal GAIA. She has acted as Vice President of the Swiss Academy of Sciences in 2001-2006.

Introduction.- Summary; Sven Ove Hansson and Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn.- The argumentative turn; Sven Ove Hansson and Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn.- Part I. Argumentative strategies.- Choosing among the uncertainties; Sven Ove Hansson.- Accounting for possibilities; Gregor Betz.- Framing; Till Grüne-Yanoff.- Timing strategies; Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn.- Setting and revising goals; Karin Edvardsson Björnberg.- Value uncertainty; Niklas Möller.- Ethical orientations for policy decisions; Rafaela Hillerbrand, Pieter van Gelder, and Genserik Reniers.- Participation as a means to better argumentation; Jeroen van den Hoven, Alessandra Palmigiano, and Francis M Brazier.- Argumentative roads to agreement; Georg Brun and Gregor Betz.- Part II Argumentation in practice.- Climate geoengineering; Kevin Elliott.- Water governance; Neelke Doorn.- Synthetic biology; Armin Grunwald.- Nuclear waste; Kristin Shrader-Frechette.- Financial markets; Michael Schefczyk.