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This book explains how we can understand objective chance (or objective probability) in a metaphysically neutral way, as reducible to certain patterns that can be discerned in the actual events of our world.
Carl Hoefer studied Philosophy of Science and Philosophy of Physics at Stanford University, supervised by Nancy Cartwright and Peter Galison. From 1991 to 1998 he taught at the University of California, Riverside; from 1998 - 2002 at the London School of Economics; and since 2002 he has been an ICREA Research Professor in Barcelona. He is interested in understanding the metaphysics of the natural world.
Analytic Table of Contents
List of Boxes
Introduction
Chapter 1: Metaphysical Preliminaries
1.1 Humean Objective Chance (HOC): a first sketch
1.2 The Humean Mosaic
1.3 The Dialectics of primitive chance
1.4 Chance as hypothetical infinite-run frequency: Propensities made respectable?
1.5 Summing Up
Chapter 2: From Lewisian Chance to Humean chance
2.1 PP
2.2 Time and Chance
2.3 Lewis' Best System Analysis of laws and chance
2.4 Chance and Determinism
2.5 Chance credence
2.6 Summing Up
Chapter 3: Humean Objective Chance
3.1 The basic features
3.2 Examples
3.3 The Best System of Chances
3.4 More about the contents of the Best System
3.5 Summing Up
Chapter 4: Deducing the Principal Principle
4.1 Deducing the reasonableness of PP
4.2 PP and the epistemology of HOC
4.3 Other accounts and PP
4.4 Summing Up
Chapter 5: Undermining
5.1 Undermining - what is it?
5.2 Is the contradiction real?
5.3 The Lewis-Hall solution
5.4 Independence for Humeans
5.5 The NP solution redeemed
5.6 Summing Up
Chapter 6: Macro-level and Micro-level Chances
6.1 A Chance for all Setups?
6.2 Epistemology of micro-derived chances
6.3 Micro-derived chances and PP
6.4 Summing Up
Chapter 7: Humean Chance in Physics
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Classical Statistical Mechanics
7.3 Quantum Chances
7.4 Summing Up
Chapter 8: Chance and Causation
8.1 A reductive relation?
8.2 Bob's great presentation
8.3 The Cause-Credence Principle
8.4 More on causation
Closing remarks
Bibliography
