Power to the People

Never before have so many possessed the means to be so lethal. The diffusion of modern technology (robotics, cyber weapons, 3-D printing, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence) to ordinary people has given them access to weapons of mass violence previously monopolized by the state. In recent years, states have attempted to stem the flow of such weapons to individuals and non-state groups, but their efforts are failing. Based on hard lessons from previouswaves of weapons-technology such as dynamite and the assault rifle, Power to the People, explains what the future may hold and how we should respond.

Audrey Kurth Cronin, one of the world's leading experts on security and terrorism, is currently Professor of International Security and the Founding Director of the Center for Security, Innovation, and New Technology at American University. Previously, she worked as a Specialist in Terrorism at the Congressional Research Service, advising Members of Congress in the aftermath of 9/11. She also held a number of positions in the executive branch, including in the office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy and the Office of the Secretary of the Navy. She is the author of several books, including How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns.

- Introduction: The Age of Lethal Empowerment
- PART ONE: THEORY
- Chapter 1: Classic Models of Military Innovation: Shaped by the Nuclear Revolution
- Introduction
- The Historical Relationship between War and Technology
- Innovation is Double-Edged
- The Social Nature of Diffusion
- Technology is Not Strategy
- Historical Context Matters
- Opening Pandora's Box
- Chapter 2: The Arsenal for Anarchy: When and How Violent Individuals and Groups Innovate
- Introduction
- The Historical Relationship between Political Violence and Technology
- How Technologies Were Harnessed
- How Lethal Nonstate Actors Innovate
- Everett Rogers' Theory of Commercial Diffusion Revisited
- PART TWO: HISTORY
- Chapter 3: Dynamite and the Birth of Modern Terrorism
- Introduction
- The Advent of Gunpowder
- Early Explosive Violence from Below
- Gunpowder Helps Build the Modern World
- Alfred Nobel's Vision
- Dynamite Becomes the People's Weapon
- The Narodnaya Volya and the Killing of the Tsar
- The Skirmishers and Clan na Gael
- The International Anarchist Movement
- Why Dynamite Diffused
- Chapter 4: How Dynamite Diffused
- Introduction
- Innovation Was Not Driven by the Military
- The Global Production of Dynamite
- Growth Despite Danger
- Inexorable Downward Pressure on Price
- The Stoking of Discontent
- The International Anarchist Convention of 1881 and 'Propaganda of the Deed'
- Dynamite Schools and Pamphlets
- Anarchist Newspapers and Periodicals Worldwide
- Mass Market Sensationalism
- Patterns in Numbers of Attacks
- How Global Dynamitings Ended
- Nobel's Remorse
- Chapter 5: The Kalashnikov and the Global Wave of Insurgencies
- Introduction
- The Evolution of Firearms and the Introduction of the Machine Gun
- Kalashnikov's Invention of the AK-47
- Why the AK-47 Was so Widely Adopted
- A Humble, Yet Disruptive Innovation
- Chapter 6: How the Kalashnikov Diffused
- The Kalashnikov's Debut and Public Demonstration
- Trading in Kalashnikovs
- The Diffusion of Kalashnikovs
- A Proliferation of Factories
- The Revolutionary's Weapon of Choice
- Back to the USA
- The Impact on the Power of States
- Why the Kalashnikov Spread
- The Floodgates Opened
- Kalashnikov's Regret
- The Power of Unintended Consequences
- PART THREE: CONVERGENCE: WIDESPREAD LETHAL EMPOWERMENT
- Chapter 7: Open Innovation of Mobilization: Social Media and Conquering Digital Terrain
- Introduction
- The New Nature of Mobilization
- New Tools for Old Tactics
- New Tools Used in New Ways
- Boundless Interactivity
- Mobile Streaming Videos and Live-streaming
- Quality First-Person Filmmaking Technology
- Viral Fake News
- End-to-End Encryption
- Hijacking Psychological Tactics
- Unintended Consequences Redux
- Chapter 8: Open Innovation of Reach: From AK-47s to Drones, Robots, Smartphones, and 3-D Printing
- Introduction
- Convergent Technologies and Extended Reach
- The Scope of Unmanned Systems
- How Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Extend Private Reach
- Predators, Reapers, Global Hawk: Sustaining Technologies
- The Pattern of State-to-State Proliferation of UAVs
- State-to-Group Proliferation of UAVs: Hezbollah and Hamas
- These Are Not the Drones You're Looking For
- Terrorist and Insurgent Groups' Lethal UAV Programs
- Crowd-funded, "Grey Zone," and Private UAV Intelligence
- Advances in the Works
- Drones as Missiles
- Democratized Precision Strike Capability
- Everyone Manufactures Everything with 3D Printing
- Individual Flying Devices
- Lagging Countermeasures
- Chapter 9: An Army of One Launches Many: Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence
- Introduction
- A Spectrum of Autonomy
- The Perils of Full Artificial Intelligence
- The Predictions of Lethal Empowerment Theory
- Autonomous Reach
- Self-driving Truck Bombs
- Hijacking the Internet of Things
- Autonomous Swarms
- Small Autonomous Killer Robots
- Tailored for Terrorism
- Conclusion: Strategy in an Age of Lethal Empowerment
- Powerful Economic Incentives for Diffusion
- Technological Optimism and a Boom in Tinkering
- New Communications Technologies Are Powerful Incentives to Violence
- Militaries Are Facing the Innovator's Dilemma
- Disruptive Private Armies: The ISIS Precedent
- Responding to the Threat
- The Profit Motive for Protections
- Regulation Is Not Necessarily Strangulation
- Building Up National Security
- Strategy in an Age of Lethal Empowerment