Power to the People

Essential reading on how technology empowers rogue actors and how society can adapt. Never have so many possessed the means to be so lethal. A dramatic shift from 20th century "closed" military innovation to "open" innovation driven by commercial processes is underway. The diffusion of modern technology--robotics, cyber weapons, 3-D printing, synthetic biology, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence--to ordinary people has given them access to weapons of mass violence previously monopolized by the state. As Audrey Kurth Cronin explains in Power to the People, what we are seeing now is the continuation of an age-old trend. Over the centuries, from the invention of dynamite to the release of the AK-47, many of the most surprising developments in warfare have occurred because of technological advances combined with changes in who can use them. That shifting social context illuminates our current situation, in which new "open" technologies are reshaping the future of war. Cronin explains why certain lethal technologies spread, which ones to focus on, and how individuals and private groups will adapt lethal off-the-shelf technologies for malevolent ends. Now in paperback with a foreword by Lawrence Freedman and a new epilogue, Power to the People focuses on how to both preserve the promise of emerging technologies and reduce risks. Power is flowing to the people, but the same digital technologies that empower can imperil global security--unless we act strategically.

Audrey Kurth Cronin is one of the world's leading experts on security and terrorism, with high-level experience in public service and academia. She is currently Distinguished Professor of International Security and founding Director of the Center for Security, Innovation and New Technology at American University.

Foreword by Lawrence FreedmanIntroduction: The Age of Lethal Empowerment
PART ONE: THEORY
Chapter 1: Classic Models of Military Innovation: Shaped by the Nuclear Revolution Introduction The Historical Relationship between War and Technology Innovation is Double-Edged The Social Nature of Diffusion Technology is Not Strategy Historical Context Matters Opening Pandora's Box
Chapter 2: The Arsenal for Anarchy: When and How Violent Individuals and Groups Innovate Introduction The Historical Relationship between Political Violence and TechnologyHow Technologies Were Harnessed How Lethal Nonstate Actors Innovate Everett Rogers' Theory of Commercial Diffusion Revisited
PART TWO: HISTORY
Chapter 3: Dynamite and the Birth of Modern Terrorism Introduction The Advent of Gunpowder Early Explosive Violence from Below Gunpowder Helps Build the Modern World Alfred Nobel's Vision Dynamite Becomes the People's Weapon The Narodnaya Volya and the Killing of the Tsar The Skirmishers and Clan na Gael The International Anarchist Movement Why Dynamite Diffused Chapter 4: How Dynamite Diffused IntroductionInnovation Was Not Driven by the Military The Global Production of DynamiteGrowth Despite DangerInexorable Downward Pressure on PriceThe Stoking of Discontent The International Anarchist Convention of 1881 and 'Propaganda of the Deed' Dynamite Schools and Pamphlets Anarchist Newspapers and Periodicals Worldwide Mass Market Sensationalism Patterns in Numbers of AttacksHow Global Dynamitings Ended Nobel's Remorse
Chapter 5: The Kalashnikov and the Global Wave of Insurgencies Introduction The Evolution of Firearms and the Introduction of the Machine Gun Kalashnikov's Invention of the AK-47 Why the AK-47 Was so Widely Adopted A Humble, Yet Disruptive Innovation
Chapter 6: How the Kalashnikov Diffused The Kalashnikov's Debut and Public Demonstration Trading in Kalashnikovs The Diffusion of KalashnikovsA Proliferation of Factories The Revolutionary's Weapon of ChoiceBack to the USA The Impact on the Power of States Why the Kalashnikov SpreadThe Floodgates Opened Kalashnikov's RegretThe Power of Unintended Consequences
PART THREE: CONVERGENCE: WIDESPREAD LETHAL EMPOWERMENT
Chapter 7: Open Innovation of Mobilization: Social Media and Conquering Digital Terrain Introduction The New Nature of Mobilization New Tools for Old Tactics New Tools Used in New WaysBoundless Interactivity Mobile Streaming Videos and Live-streaming Quality First-Person Filmmaking TechnologyViral Fake News End-to-End Encryption Hijacking Psychological TacticsUnintended Consequences Redux
Chapter 8: Open Innovation of Reach: From AK-47s to Drones, Robots, Smartphones, and 3-D Printing Introduction Convergent Technologies and Extended Reach The Scope of Unmanned Systems How Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Extend Private Reach Predators, Reapers, Global Hawk: Sustaining Technologies The Pattern of State-to-State Proliferation of UAVs State-to-Group Proliferation of UAVs: Hezbollah and Hamas These Are Not the Drones You're Looking For Terrorist and Insurgent Groups' Lethal UAV Programs Crowd-funded, "Grey Zone," and Private UAV Intelligence Advances in the Works Drones as Missiles Democratized Precision Strike Capability Everyone Manufactures Everything with 3D Printing Individual Flying Devices Lagging Countermeasures Chapter 9: An Army of One Launches Many: Autonomy and Artificial IntelligenceIntroductionA Spectrum of AutonomyThe Perils of Full Artificial IntelligenceThe Predictions of Lethal Empowerment TheoryAutonomous ReachSelf-driving Truck BombsHijacking the Internet of ThingsAutonomous SwarmsSmall Autonomous Killer RobotsTailored for Terrorism
Conclusion: Strategy in an Age of Lethal Empowerment Powerful Economic Incentives for DiffusionTechnological Optimism and a Boom in TinkeringNew Communications Technologies Are Powerful Incentives to ViolenceMilitaries Are Facing the Innovator's DilemmaDisruptive Private Armies: The ISIS PrecedentResponding to the ThreatThe Profit Motive for ProtectionsRegulation Is Not Necessarily StrangulationBuilding Up National SecurityStrategy in an Age of Lethal Empowerment
Epilogue