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This book examines the interplay between energy policy and security policy under Vladimir Putin, and his drive to re-establish Russia's 'greatness'. Assessing the internal contradictions of this policy, the book argues that Russia's desire to strengthen its role of 'energy security' provider is undermined by its inability to secure growth in production of oil and gas. Further, the pressing demand to channel more resources into the military-industrial complex clashes with the growing need to invest in the energy complex, and the priority granted to strategic forces deprives the conventional forces of strike power and strategic mobility. In conclusion, the author anticipates how these contradictions could be resolved, and suggests three short scenarios for Russia's continuing transition in the next decade. This book will be of interest to students of Russian politics, European politics and international security.
Pavel Baev is a Research Professor at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO).
Introduction 1. Three Backgrounds 1.1 The Military Reform that Never Happened 1.2 The Energy Dividend that was too Low - and has Become too High 1.3 The Dream of a New 'Greatness' that has Come Truly False 2. Deadlocked Energy-Security Dilemmas 2.1 The Trickle of the Oil Money for the Military 2.2 Counter-Terrorism and the Caspian Oil Games 2.3 Alliance-Building with Virtual Commitments and Energy Power 3. Military Muscle as the Ultimate Proof of 'Greatness' 3.1 Virtually Extended Nuclear Deterrence of the 'Great Power' 3.2 The Army and Power-Projecting in the New 'Empire' 3.3 Internal Order and Security in the 'Civilization' 4. Energy Power and the Quest for 'Greatness' 4.1 Applying the Gas Lever for Qualifying as a 'Great Power' 4.2 Reconstituting the 'Empire' as an Oil-and-Gas Cartel 4.3 Hydrocarbon Foundation for the 'Civilization.' Conclusion
