Predictive Intelligence for Tomorrow's Threats

The world is facing an ever-changing array of complex threats to international security. Yet intelligence agencies have a mixed record of anticipating these threats, while decision makers have an equally mixed record of effectively acting on predictive intelligence when offered. Sometimes intelligence has provided a useful warning, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but at other times it has failed to anticipate critical events, such as the progress of fighting in Ukraine or the likelihood that a mob would carry out a deadly assault on the US Capitol building. And at still other times intelligence agencies appear to have provided warning, and yet policy makers failed to listen, such as before the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. This book casts new light on past failures and suggests new frameworks for thinking about future threats and challenges. Written for academics and practitioners, it answers key questions about how intelligence can better inform policy makers and, in turn, help them anticipate and act upon future threats. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism.

Erik J. Dahl is Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, where he specializes in intelligence, terrorism, and homeland security and defense. His latest book is The COVID-19 Intelligence Failure: Why Warning Was Not Enough. David Strachan-Morris is Lecturer in Intelligence and Security at the University of Leicester, where he is the Programme Director for the MA Intelligence and Security. He holds a PhD from the University of Wolverhampton and previously worked in intelligence roles in the police, British Army, and private security industry.

Introduction - 'Predictive intelligence for tomorrow's threats': is predictive intelligence possible? 1. Intelligence warning in the corporate sector: the 2013 In Amenas terrorist attack in retrospect 2. Warning intelligence and high consequence environments: a comparative assessment to integrate human factors to support warning analysis 3. Intelligence failure in countering terrorism in south Asia: a comparative analysis of Holey Artisan and Easter attacks 4. Mass-casualty terrorism and strategic surprise in Mumbai and Paris: understanding the Islamist perspective 5. Intelligence and operational warning: lessons from Ukraine