Operational Code Analysis and Foreign Policy Roles

In this book, senior scholars and a new generation of analysts present different applications of recent advances linking beliefs and decision-making, in the area of foreign policy analysis with strategic interactions in world politics. Divided into five parts, Part 1 identifies how the beliefs in the cognitive operational codes of individual leaders explain the political decisions of states. In Part 2, five chapters illustrate progress in comparing the operational codes of individual leaders, including Vladimir Putin of Russia, three US presidents, Bolivian president Evo Morales, Sri Lanka's President Chandrika Kumaratunga, and various leaders of terrorist organizations operating in the Middle East and North Africa. Part 3 introduces a new Psychological Characteristics of Leaders (PsyCL) data set containing the operational codes of US presidents from the early 1800s to the present. In Part 4, the focus is on strategic interactions among dyads and evolutionary patterns among states in different regional and world systems. Part 5 revisits whether the contents of the preceding chapters support the claims about the links between beliefs and foreign policy roles in world politics. Richly illustrated and with comprehensive analysis Operational Code Analysis and Foreign Policy Roles will be of interest to specialists in foreign policy analysis, international relations theorists, graduate students, and national security analysts in the policy-making and intelligence communities.

Mark Schafer is a Professor of Political Psychology in the School of Politics, Security, and International Affairs at the University of Central Florida working primarily in the field of international relations. His research interests include groupthink, the operational code, and psychological correlates of foreign policy behavior. He has published his research in major journals such as Journal of Politics, International Studies Quarterly, and Journal of Conflict Resolution. He received the Erik Erikson Award for Early Career Achievement from the International Society of Political Psychology in 2003, and was honored with the Distinguished Scholar Award from the Foreign Policy Analysis Section of the International Studies Association in 2021. Stephen G. Walker is Professor Emeritus in the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University. His research interests focus on conflict management and resolution, foreign policy analysis, and political psychology. His research articles have appeared in Political Psychology, Journal of Conflict Resolution, and International Studies Quarterly. He received the Foreign Policy Section's Distinguished Scholar Award from the International Studies Association in 2003.

Part 1: Beliefs and Roles in World Politics 1. The Interface between Beliefs and Roles in World Politics 2. The Development of Foreign Policy Roles: Beliefs and Complex Adaptive Systems Part 2: The Operational Codes of World Leaders 3. Revisiting the Operational Code of Vladimir Putin 4. Deciphering Deadly Minds in Their Native Language: The Operational Codes and Formation Patterns of Militant Organizations in the Middle East and North Africa 5. Operational Code Analysis and Civil Conflict Severity 6. Policy Documents and the Beliefs of Foreign Policy Decision-Makers: A Next Step in Operational Code Analysis 7. One Step Forward, Two Steps Back: The Steering Effects of Operational Code Beliefs in the Chilean-Bolivian Rivalry Part 3: The Psychological Characteristics of US Presidents 8. Psychological Correlates and US Conflict Behavior: The PsyCL Data Set 9. Operational Code Beliefs and Threat Perceptions by US Presidents 10. Presidential Personalities and Operational Codes: Learning Effects and Midterm Congressional Election Results 11. US Presidential Belief Systems and the Evolution of Peace in the International System Part 4: Computational Models of Foreign Policy Roles 12. Binary Role Theory and the Evolution of Cooperation in World Politics 13. Binary Role Theory and the Operational Code Analysis of Grand Strategies: Can Balancing Work? 14. Operational Code Analysis: A Method for Measuring Strategic Culture 15. An Operational Code Analysis of Foreign Policy Roles in US-Iran Strategic Dyads Part 5: Beyond Beliefs in World Politics 16. Operational Codes and Foreign Policy Roles: Conceptual Insights and Empirical Results